Friday, October 22, 2004

Pace of Tech Innovation vis-a-vis Investing

I believe Steve Jurvetson either posited or quoted someone that the pace of technology change over
the next decade or two will equal or exceed that of the last century. I think this has profound
implications for investing esp. in early stage ventures. I think there will a few tremendous
fortunes built (a la Google, Ebay) but a pile of money up in smoke given how fast the needle is
going to be moving.

What brings this thought to mind is the Baby Bells all of a sudden investing headlong into FTTN
(fiber to the neighborhood, premises etc.). After reading the article about the guy in Toronto
who is providing his whole neighborhood with access and content, I have to think something similar
will be scaleable in short order. What happens then to all the hot new fiber?

I belive only the few will be chosen and a lot will disappear, including some of today's legacy
corps that are gasping to adapt. It seems the endgame has happened already yet these guys want to
fight the good fight. Might as well take that cash out back and torch it.

This is going to be something.

=====
Andy Nardone
QB Capital Management
13 N Cedar Pkwy
Livingston, NJ 07039
973.735.2119
Cell 973.464.7248



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