Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Housing Ends Ugly

Everyone is quick to spot a bubble ever since the stock market meltdown of 2000. Housing has been fingered as a bubble for several years now. I have been on the accusing end here. There are plenty that say there may be localized bubbles but housing doesn't lend itself to a nationalized bubble.

Well, as far as I'm concerned all the evidence lately doesn't pass the sniff test. I predict we will see a real estate correction the likes of which we have never experienced in the US. I think it will make the RTC/S&L debacle look like child's play. I'm basing this on nothing more than the old "shoeshine boy" theory. "When the shoeshine boy starts giving you tips, it is time to be out of the market," Joe Kennedy reportedly told his wife.

Everything blowing in the real estate wind wreaks of this today. NY Times today has an
about flippers and rampant speculation. It ain't going to end nicely.

I admit my timing has been way, way off, but the endgame I foresee hasn't changed. Real estate is going to come unglued. And shit rolls downhill, it will be a nationwide problem.


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